This is my first post in a very long time. The only reason I am posting today is because I didn’t really have to do anything to put this post up. The following analysis is from an email I just received breaking down a recently listed retail center. Needless to say, the property is way [...]
Apr
23
CREOBA in My Back Yard. Can’t Believe I Missed it.
Just this past week (on April 21st) my buddies from the Commercial REO Brokers Association (CREOBA) were holding court in my back yard – and I missed it! In looking over the email announcement it appears the main topic of the event (other than networking with the key movers and shakers in commercial REO???) was [...]
Mar
30
Phoenix Retail Sucking Wind
The Phoenix Business Journal published a not-so-surprising article this past Friday about the state of retail shopping centers in the Phoenix MSA. The article paints a dismal picture for the state of retail in Phoenix. According to David Wetta, director of Marcus & Millichap’s national retail group, there are 1,753 retail properties in the Valley [...]
Mar
01
Another CREOBA Post
I have been receiving numerous emails from CREOBA every single day for a very long time and just archiving them for some future post or action that I have yet to think of. Today’s email does require a quick mention though. Apparently, CREOBA has decided to start offering their hugely valuable (ha!) courses via webinar! [...]
Dec
15
Holiday CRE Video
Enjoy. (HT – Calculated Risk)
Dec
04
Introducing CNRPA, an Attempt to Distinguish CREOBA’s Business Model
I have just been notified, via Twitter that CNRPA is now following me. So I go to check out who CNRPA is and I find the Commercial National REO Professionals Association! Anyone who has read this blog for any amount of time will understand when I say I can’t remember the last time I was [...]
Dec
02
Not a Chance in Hell
Here is an email flyer I got yesterday. These guys are trying to sell 30 acres of raw land for commercial development in Murrieta in a “C” location (on its best day). Who is buying 30 acres for commercial development in Murrieta right now? I don’t know anyone with that strategy in their business plan. [...]
Oct
26
CMBS Bonds Downgraded on Special Servicing Action
Standard & Poor’s had downgraded 15 classes of bonds backed by a $425 million loan secured against the Four Seasons Hotel in New York and 3 other luxury resort hotels. The action was triggered by a drop in cash flow which was 46% below S&P expectations. Surely, the expected cash flow figure had already been [...]
Oct
22
A Few More Words on Vacancy Factors in CRE Underwriting
I wanted to make another quick point on CRE underwriting as it relates to vacancy. Some of the more “with it” sellers have begun allowing vacancy factors underwritten into their offering memorandums. What is often overlooked is the actual relation of the vacancy factor to operations. Often you will see a vacancy factor of 3% [...]
Oct
22
Is A New Underwriting Trend Emerging in CRE?
I received a marketing brochure today that, quite frankly, left me a bit shocked. The property is a multi-tenant retail building in a power center in Southern California. The shocking part of the offering was that the seller and broker were NOT attempting to capitalize income from the vacant suites. Maybe CRE practitioners are starting [...]
Oct
08
CREOBA Resorting to Shilling
This is getting out of control. The highly credible (cough) Commercial REO Brokers Association (CREOBA) has resorted to shilling as a counter to the negative press they have been receiving. If you read the comments to this post you can see the evidence for yourself. I wonder if these guys really thought that I wouldn’t [...]
Oct
07
Office Vacancy at 16.5%
Another post from Calculated Risk showing office vacancy rates since 1991. We are not as bad as we were in 1991 but it looks like we are heading there. Graph below from CR.
Oct
07
Inland Empire Vacancy
Calculated risk put up a post yesterday about a topic that is near and dear to my heart: the Inland Empire commercial real estate market. In summary, the retail vacancy rate continues to rise in the Inland empire. I also thought it was humorous that the primary source for this data was CB Richard Ellis. [...]
Oct
02
Have CRE Prices Bottomed?
I just came across this article in which Mike Kirby, Director of Research at Green Street Advisors claims that CRE values may not drop any further than they already have. My head is spinning now. I don’t know what to think anymore. Its almost as if everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Maybe CAP [...]
Oct
02
Never Mind, No Green Shoots for Retail
It looks like retailers are not faring so well after all. From an article published today at DallasNews.com titled “Speakers at Retailing Summit in Dallas offer sobering assessment” (emphasis mine): Retailers shouldn’t expect to see the pre-recession shopper in this economic recovery, and a shakeout with store closings is still ahead, speakers said Thursday at [...]